Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Ward, Joseph L. and Azzopardi, Peter S. and Francis, Kate Louise and Santelli, John S. and Skirbekk, Vegard and Sawyer, Susan M. and Kassebaum, Nicholas J. and Mokdad, Ali H. and Hay, Simon I. and Abd-Allah, Foad and Abdoli, Amir and Abdollahi, Mohammad and Abedi, Aidin and Abolhassani, Hassan and Abreu, Lucas Guimaraes and Abrigo, Michael R. M. and Abu-Gharbieh, Eman and Abushouk, Abdelrahman I. and Adebayo, Oladimeji M. and Adekanmbi, Victor and Adham, Davoud and Advani, Shailesh M. and Afshari, Khashayar and Agrawal, Anurag and Ahmad, Tauseef and Ahmadi, Keivan and Ahmed, Anwar E. and Aji, Budi and Akombi-Inyang, Blessing and Alahdab, Fares and Al-Aly, Ziyad and Alam, Khurshid and Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour and Alanzi, Turki M. and Alcalde-Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth and Alemu, Biresaw Wassihun and Al-Hajj, Samar and Alhassan, Robert Kaba and Ali, Saqib and Alicandro, Gianfranco and Alijanzadeh, Mehran and Aljunid, Syed Mohamed and Almasi-Hashiani, Amir and Almasri, Nihad A. and Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M. and Alonso, Jordi and Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. and Altirkawi, Khalid A. and Alvis-Guzman, Nelson and Amare, Azmeraw T. and Amini, Saeed and Aminorroaya, Arya and Amit, Arianna Maever L. and Amugsi, Dickson A. and Ancuceanu, Robert and Anderlini, Deanna and Andrei, Catalina Liliana and Androudi, Sofia and Ansari, Fereshteh and Ansari, Iman and Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. and Anvari, Davood and Anwer, Razique and Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw and Arabloo, Jalal and Arab-Zozani, Morteza and Arnlov, Johan and Asaad, Malke and Asadi-Aliabadi, Mehran and Asadi-Pooya, Ali A. and Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi and Ausloos, Marcel and Avenyo, Elvis Korku and Avila-Burgos, Leticia and Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala and Ayano, Getinet and Aynalem, Yared Asmare and Azari, Samad and Azene, Zelalem Nigussie and Bakhshaei, Mohammad Hossein and Bakkannavar, Shankar M. and Banach, Maciej and Banik, Palash Chandra and Barboza, Miguel A. and Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn and Baernighausen, Till Winfried and Basu, Sanjay and Baune, Bernhard T. and Bayati, Mohsen and Bedi, Neeraj and Beghi, Ettore and Bekuma, Tariku Tesfaye and Bell, Arielle Wilder and Bell, Michelle L. and Benjet, Corina and Bensenor, Isabela M. and Berhe, Abadi Kidanemariam and Berhe, Kidanemaryam and Berman, Adam E. and Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth and Bhardwaj, Nikha and Bhardwaj, Pankaj and Bhattacharyya, Krittika and Bhattarai, Suraj and Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. and Bijani, Ali and Bikbov, Boris and Biondi, Antonio and Birhanu, Tesega Tesega Mengistu and Biswas, Raaj Kishore and Bohlouli, Somayeh and Bolla, Srinivasa Rao and Boloor, Archith and Borschmann, Rohan and Boufous, Soufiane and Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi and Braithwaite, Dejana and Breitborde, Nicholas J. 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LANCET, 398 (10311). pp. 1593-1618.

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Abstract

Background Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). Findings In 2019 there were 1.49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1.39-1.59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32.7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32.1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27.0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8.2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30.0% in females and 15.3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1.3% in males and 1.6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2.4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2.5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9.5% to 21.6%. Interpretation Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: WA Public Health > WA. 900 Vital Statistics
Divisions: Faculty of Health > Department of Epidemiology
Depositing User: zeynab . bagheri
Date Deposited: 05 Jan 2022 11:19
Last Modified: 05 Jan 2022 11:19
URI: http://eprints.skums.ac.ir/id/eprint/9242

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