Trends in prevalence of blindness and distance and near vision impairment over 30 years: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Bourne, Rupert R. A. and Steinmetz, Jaimie D. and Flaxman, Seth and Briant, Paul Svitil and Taylor, Hugh R. and Resnikoff, Serge and Casson, Robert James and Abdoli, Amir and Abu-Gharbieh, Eman and Afshin, Ashkan and Ahmadieh, Hamid and Akalu, Yonas and Alamneh, Alehegn Aderaw and Alemayehu, Wondu and Alfaar, Ahmed Samir and Alipour, Vahid and Anbesu, Etsay Woldu and Androudi, Sofia and Arabloo, Jalal and Arditi, Aries and Asaad, Malke and Bagli, Eleni and Baig, Atif Amin and Barnighausen, Till Winfried and Parodi, Maurizio Battaglia and Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth and Bhardwaj, Nikha and Bhardwaj, Pankaj and Bhattacharyya, Krittika and Bijani, Ali and Bikbov, Mukharram and Bottone, Michele and Braithwaite, Tasanee and Bron, Alain M. and Butt, Zahid A. and Cheng, Ching-Yu and Chu, Dinh-Toi and Cicinelli, Maria Vittoria and Coelho, Joao M. and Dagnew, Baye and Dai, Xiaochen and Dana, Reza and Dandona, Lalit and Dandona, Rakhi and Del Monte, Monte A. and Deva, Jenny P. and Diaz, Daniel and Djalalinia, Shirin and Dreer, Laura E. and Ehrlich, Joshua R. and Ellwein, Leon B. and Emamian, Mohammad Hassan and Fernandes, Arthur G. and Fischer, Florian and Friedman, David S. and Furtado, Joao M. and Gaidhane, Abhay Motiramji and Gaidhane, Shilpa and Gazzard, Gus and Gebremichael, Berhe and George, Ronnie and Ghashghaee, Ahmad and Golechha, Mahaveer and Hamidi, Samer and Hammond, Billy Randall and Hartnett, Mary Elizabeth R. and Hartono, Risky Kusuma and Hay, Simon and Heidari, Golnaz and Ho, Hung Chak and Hoang, Chi Linh and Househ, Mowafa and Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel and Ilic, Irena M. and Ilic, Milena D. and Ingram, April D. and Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi and Jha, Ravi Prakash and Kahloun, Rim and Kandel, Himal and Kasa, Ayele Semachew and Kempen, John H. and Keramati, Maryam and Khairallah, Moncef and Khan, Ejaz Ahmad and Khanna, Rohit C. and Khatib, Mahalaqua Nazli and Kim, Judy E. and Kim, Yun Jin and Kisa, Adnan and Kisa, Sezer and Koyanagi, Ai and Kurmi, Om P. and Lansingh, Van Charles and Leasher, Janet L. and Leveziel, Nicolas and Limburg, Hans and Majdan, Marek and Manafi, Navid and Mansouri, Kaweh and McAlinden, Colm and Mohammadi, Seyed Farzad and Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah and Mohammadpourhodki, Reza and Mokdad, Ali H. and Moosavi, Delaram and Morse, Alan R. and Naderi, Mehdi and Naidoo, Kovin S. and Nangia, Vinay and Nguyen, Cuong Tat and Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi and Ogundimu, Kolawole and Olagunju, Andrew T. and Ostroff, Samuel M. and Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra and Pesudovs, Konrad and Peto, Tunde and Syed, Zahiruddin Quazi and Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur and Ramulu, Pradeep Y. and Rawaf, David Laith and Rawaf, Salman and Reinig, Nickolas and Robin, Alan L. and Rossetti, Luca and Safi, Sare and Sahebkar, Amirhossein and Samy, Abdallah M. and Saxena, Deepak and Serle, Janet B. and Shaikh, Masood Ali and Shen, Tueng T. and Shibuya, Kenji and Shin, Jae Il and Silva, Juan Carlos and Silvester, Alexander and Singh, Jasvinder A. and Singhal, Deepika and Sitorus, Rita S. and Skiadaresi, Eirini and Skirbekk, Vegard and Soheili, Amin and Sousa, Raul A. R. C. and Spurlock, Emma Elizabeth and Stambolian, Dwight and Taddele, Biruk Wogayehu and Tadesse, Eyayou Girma and Tahhan, Nina and Tareque, Md Ismail and Topouzis, Fotis and Tran, Bach Xuan and Travillian, Ravensara S. and Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis K. and Varma, Rohit and Virgili, Gianni and Wang, Ningli and Wang, Ya Xing and West, Sheila K. and Wong, Tien Y. and Zaidi, Zoubida and Zewdie, Kaleab Alemayehu and Jonas, Jost B. and Vos, Theo and Burd, Vision Loss Expert Grp Global (2021) Trends in prevalence of blindness and distance and near vision impairment over 30 years: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH, 9 (2). E130-E143. ISSN 2214-109X

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Background To contribute to the WHO initiative, VISION 2020: The Right to Sight, an assessment of global vision impairment in 2020 and temporal change is needed. We aimed to extensively update estimates of global vision loss burden, presenting estimates for 2020, temporal change over three decades between 1990-2020, and forecasts for 2050. Methods We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based surveys of eye disease from January, 1980, to October, 2018. Only studies with samples representative of the population and with dearly defined visual acuity testing protocols were included. We fitted hierarchical models to estimate 2020 prevalence (with 95% uncertainty intervals UN]) of mild vision impairment (presenting visual acuity >= 6/18 and <6/12), moderate and severe vision impairment (<6/18 to 3/60), and blindness (<3/60 or less than 10 degrees visual field around central fixation); and vision impairment from uncorrected presbyopia (presenting near vision<N6 or <N8 at 40 cm where best-corrected distance visual acuity is >= 6/12). We forecast estimates of vision loss up to 2050. Findings In 2020, an estimated 43.3 million (95% UI 37.6-48.4) people were blind, of whom 23.9 million (55%; 20.8-26.8) were estimated to be female. We estimated 295 million (267-325) people to have moderate and severe vision impairment, of whom 163 million (55%; 147-179) were female; 258 million (233-285) to have mild vision impairment, of whom 142 million (55%; 128-157) were female; and 510 million (371-667) to have visual impairment from uncorrected presbyopia, of whom 280 million (55%; 205-365) were female. Globally, between 1990 and 2020, among adults aged 50 years or older, age-standardised prevalence of blindness decreased by 28.5% (-29.4 to -27.7) and prevalence of mild vision impairment decreased slightly (-0.3%, -0.8 to -0.2), whereas prevalence of moderate and severe vision impainnent increased slightly (2.5%, 1.9 to 3.2; insufficient data were available to calculate this statistic for vision impairment from uncorrected presbyopia). In this period, the number of people who were blind increased by 50.6% (47.8 to 53.4) and the number with moderate and severe vision impairment increased by 91.7% (87.6 to 95.8). By 2050, we predict 61.0 million (52.9 to 69.3) people will be blind, 474 million (428 to 518) will have moderate and severe vision impairment, 360 million (322 to 400) will have mild vision impairment, and 866 million (629 to 1150) will have uncorrected presbyopia. Interpretation Age-adjusted prevalence of blindness has reduced over the past three decades, yet due to population growth, progress is not keeping pace with needs. We face enormous challenges in avoiding vision impairment as the global population grows and ages.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: W General medicine- Health professions
Divisions: Faculty of Health > Department of Epidemiology
Depositing User: zeynab . bagheri
Date Deposited: 31 May 2021 07:20
Last Modified: 31 May 2021 07:20

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