Modeling trend changes of mean annual exposure to PM2.5 particles in the Middle East countries via growth mixture models

Mardani, Gashtasb and Alikhani Faradonbeh, Mahdiyeh and Fatahian Kelishadrokhi, Zahra and Raeisi Shahraki, Hadi (2021) Modeling trend changes of mean annual exposure to PM2.5 particles in the Middle East countries via growth mixture models. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14 (7). ISSN 18667511

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Abstract

Rapid economic expansion, industrialization, urbanization, and construction in the Middle East have led to an increase in ambient air pollution. This study was devoted to model the 28-year trend changes of the mean annual exposure to particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5 particles) in the Middle East countries. Data used in the current study includes the mean annual exposure of PM2.5 air pollution (micrograms per cubic meter) for the Middle East countries during 1990 to 2017 that is compiled by the World Bank. To identify different longitudinal patterns of PM2.5, the researchers fitted growth mixture model with a different number of clusters in Mplus 7.4. The overall trend of annual exposure was rising during 1990 to 2017. Both the Bayesian information criterion and likelihood ratio test confirmed that the 2-cluster model is the best and the entropy of 0.99 confirmed a good quality in the cluster memberships. The observed pattern of exposure to PM2.5 in cluster 1, including Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen, was rising over time. On the other hand, countries in cluster 2, including Cyprus, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Oman, Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey, experienced a constant level of exposure to PM2.5 from 1990 to 2017. The main longitudinal patterns of PM2.5 were identified by the proposed model. Given the harmful effects of exposure to PM2.5 particles, taking into account more investigation in the future is highly suggested.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: cited By 0
Uncontrolled Keywords: aerodynamics; ambient air; atmospheric pollution; economic analysis; industrialization; particle size; particulate matter; pollution exposure; trend analysis; urbanization, Bahrain; Cyprus; Egypt; Iran; Iraq; Israel; Jordan; Kuwait Middle East; Lebanon; Oman; Qatar; Saudi Arabia; Syrian Arab Republic; Turkey; Yemen, Meleagris gallopavo
Subjects: WA Public Health > Public Health Education WA.18 > WA 30 Social, Economic, and Environmental factor in public health
WA Public Health > WA 30 Social, Economic, and Environmental factor in public health
Divisions: Faculty of Health > Department of Environmental Health
Depositing User: zeynab . bagheri
Date Deposited: 09 May 2021 06:01
Last Modified: 09 May 2021 06:01
URI: http://eprints.skums.ac.ir/id/eprint/9009

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