Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Wang, Haidong and Abbas, Kaja M and Abbasifard, Mitra and Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen and Abbastabar, Hedayat and Abd-Allah, Foad and Abdelalim, Ahmed and Abolhassani, Hassan and Abreu, Lucas Guimarães and Abrigo, Michael R M and Abushouk, Abdelrahman I and Adabi, Maryam and Adair, Tim and Adebayo, Oladimeji M and Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi and Adekanmbi, Victor and Adeoye, Abiodun Moshood and Adetokunboh, Olatunji O and Advani, Shailesh M and Afshin, Ashkan and Aghaali, Mohammad and Agrawal, Anurag and Ahmadi, Keivan and Ahmadieh, Hamid and Ahmed, Muktar Beshir and Al-Aly, Ziyad and Alam, Khurshid and Alam, Tahiya and Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour and Alanzi, Turki M and Alcalde-Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth and Ali, Muhammad and Alicandro, Gianfranco and Alijanzadeh, Mehran and Alinia, Cyrus and Alipour, Vahid and Alizade, Hesam and Aljunid, Syed Mohamed and Allebeck, Peter and Almadi, Majid Abdulrahman Hamad and Almasi-Hashiani, Amir and Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M and Altirkawi, Khalid A and Alumran, Arwa Khalid and Alvis-Guzman, Nelson and Amini-Rarani, Mostafa and Aminorroaya, Arya and Amit, Arianna Maever L and Ancuceanu, Robert and Andrei, Catalina Liliana and Androudi, Sofia and Angus, Colin and Anjomshoa, Mina and Ansari, Fereshteh and Ansari, Iman and Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza and Antonio, Carl Abelardo T and Antony, Catherine M and Anvari, Davood and Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw and Arabloo, Jalal and Arab-Zozani, Morteza and Aravkin, Aleksandr Y and Aremu, Olatunde and Ärnlöv, Johan and Aryal, Krishna K and Asadi-Pooya, Ali A and Asgari, Samaneh and Asghari Jafarabadi, Mohammad and Atteraya, Madhu Sudhan and Ausloos, Marcel and Avila-Burgos, Leticia and Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel Gbenato Arthur and Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina and Ayano, Getinet and Ayanore, Martin Amogre and Azarian, Ghasem and Babaee, Ebrahim and Badiye, Ashish D and Bagli, Eleni and Bahrami, Mohammad Amin and Bakhtiari, Ahad and Balassyano, Shelly and Banach, Maciej and Banik, Palash Chandra and Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn and Bärnighausen, Till Winfried and Barzegar, Akbar and Basu, Sanjay and Baune, Bernhard T and Bayati, Mohsen and Bazmandegan, Gholamreza and Bedi, Neeraj and Bell, Michellr L and Bennett, Derrick A and Bensenor, Isabela M and Berhe, Kidanemaryam and Berman, Adam E and Bertolacci, Gregory J and Bhageerathy, Reshmi and Bhala, Neeraj and Bhattacharyya, Krittika and Bhutta, Zulfiqar A and Bijani, Ali and Biondi, Antonio and Bisanzio, Donal and Bisignano, Catherine and Biswas, Raaj Kishore and Bjørge, Tone and Bohlouli, Somayeh and Bohluli, Mehdi and Bolla, Srinivasa Rao Rao and Borzì, Antonio Maria and Borzouei, Shiva and Brady, Oliver J and Braithwaite, Dejana and Brauer, Michael and Briko, Andrey Nikolaevich and Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich and Bumgarner, Blair R and Burugina Nagaraja, Sharath and Butt, Zahid A and Caetano dos Santos, Florentino Luciano and Cai, Tianji and Callender, Charlton SKH and Cámera, Luis LA Alberto and Campos-Nonato, Ismael R and Cárdenas, Rosario and Carreras, Giulia and Carrero, Juan J and Carvalho, Felix and Castaldelli-Maia, Joao Mauricio and Castelpietra, Giulio and Castro, Franz and Catalá-López, Ferrán and Cederroth, Christopher R and Cerin, Ester and Chattu, Vijay Kumar and Chin, Ken Lee and Chu, Dinh-Toi and Ciobanu, Liliana G and Cirillo, Massimo and Comfort, Haley and Costa, Vera Marisa and Cowden, Richard G and Cromwell, Elizabeth A and Croneberger, Andrew J and Cunningham, Matthew and Dahlawi, Saad M A and Damiani, Giovanni and D'Amico, Emanuele and Dandona, Lalit and Dandona, Rakhi and Dargan, Paul I and Darwesh, Aso Mohammad and Daryani, Ahmad and Das Gupta, Rajat and das Neves, José and Davletov, Kairat and De Leo, Diego and Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar and Deribe, Kebede and Dervenis, Nikolaos and Desai, Rupak and Dhungana, Govinda Prasad and Dias da Silva, Diana and Diaz, Daniel and Dippenaar, Ilse N and Djalalinia, Shirin and Do, Hoa Thi and Dokova, Klara and Doku, David Teye and Dorostkar, Fariba and Doshi, Chirag P and Doshmangir, Leila and Doyle, Kerrie E and Dubljanin, Eleonora and Duraes, Andre Rodrigues and Edvardsson, David and Effiong, Andem and El Sayed, Iman and El Tantawi, Maha and Elbarazi, Iffat and El-Jaafary, Shaimaa I and Emamian, Mohammad Hassan and Eskandarieh, Sharareh and Esmaeilzadeh, Firooz and Estep, Kara and Farahmand, Mohammad and Faraj, Anwar and Fareed, Mohammad and Faridnia, Roghiyeh and Faro, Andre and Farzadfar, Farshad and Fattahi, Nazir and Fazaeli, Ali Akbar and Fazlzadeh, Mehdi and Feigin, Valery L and Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad and Fernandes, Eduarda and Ferreira, Manuela L and Filip, Irina and Fischer, Florian and Flohr, Carsten and Foigt, Nataliya A and Folayan, Morenike Oluwatoyin and Fomenkov, Artem Alekseevich and Freitas, Marisa and Fukumoto, Takeshi and Fuller, John E and Furtado, João M and Gad, Mohamed M and Gakidou, Emmanuela and Gallus, Silvano and Gebrehiwot, Abiyu Mekonnen and Gebremedhin, Ketema Bizuwork and Gething, Peter W and Ghamari, Farhad and Ghashghaee, Ahmad and Gholamian, Asadollah and Gilani, Syed Amir and Gitimoghaddam, Mojgan and Glushkova, Ekaterina Vladimirovna and Gnedovskaya, Elena V and Gopalani, Sameer Vali and Goulart, Alessandra C and Gugnani, Harish Chander and Guo, Yuming and Gupta, Rajeev and Gupta, Subodh Sharan and Haagsma, Juanita A and Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin and Haj-Mirzaian, Arya and Halvaei, Iman and Hamadeh, Randah R and Hamagharib Abdullah, Kanaan and Han, Chieh and Handiso, Demelash Woldeyohannes and Hankey, Graeme J and Haririan, Hamidreza and Haro, Josep Maria and Hasaballah, Ahmed I and Hassanipour, Soheil and Hassankhani, Hadi and Hay, Simon I and Heibati, Behzad and Heidari-Soureshjani, Reza and Henny, Kiana and Henry, Nathaniel J and Herteliu, Claudiu and Heydarpour, Fatemeh and Hole, Michael K and Hoogar, Praveen and Hosgood, H Dean and Hossain, Naznin and Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi and Hostiuc, Mihaela and Hostiuc, Sorin and Househ, Mowafa and Hoy, Damian G and Hu, Guoqing and Huda, Tanvir M and Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel and Ikuta, Kevin S and Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen and Ilic, Irena M and Ilic, Milena D and Imani-Nasab, Mohammad Hasan and Islam, MdMohaimenul and Iso, Hiroyasu and Iwu, Chinwe Juliana and Jaafari, Jalil and Jacobsen, Kathryn H and Jahagirdar, Deepa and Jahanmehr, Nader and Jalali, Amir and Jalilian, Farzad and James, Spencer L and Janjani, Hosna and Jenabi, Ensiyeh and Jha, Ravi Prakash and Jha, Vivekanand and Ji, John S and Jonas, Jost B and Joukar, Farahnaz and Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy and Jürisson, Mikk and Kabir, Zubair and Kalani, Hamed and Kalankesh, Leila R and Kamiab, Zahra and Kanchan, Tanuj and Kapoor, Neeti and Karch, André and Karimi, Salah Eddin and Karimi, Seyed Asaad and Kassebaum, Nicholas J and Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal and Kawakami, Norito and Kayode, Gbenga A and Keiyoro, Peter Njenga and Keller, Cathleen and Khader, Yousef Saleh and Khalid, Nauman and Khan, Ejaz Ahmad and Khan, Maseer and Khang, Young-Ho and Khater, Amir M and Khater, Mona M and Khazaei, Salman and Khazaie, Habibolah and Khodayari, Mohammad Taghi and Khubchandani, Jagdish and Kianipour, Neda and Kim, Cho-il and Kim, Young-Eun and Kim, Yun Jin and Kinfu, Yohannes and Kisa, Adnan and Kisa, Sezer and Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna and Kivimäki, Mika and Komaki, Hamidreza and Kopec, Jacek A and Kosen, Soewarta and Koul, Parvaiz A and Koyanagi, Ai and Kravchenko, Michael A and Krishan, Kewal and Krohn, Kris J and Kuate Defo, Barthelemy and Kumar, G Anil and Kumar, Manasi and Kumar, Pushpendra and Kumar, Vivek and Kusuma, Dian and Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe and La Vecchia, Carlo and Lacey, Ben and Lal, Dharmesh Kumar and Lalloo, Ratilal and Lami, Faris Hasan and Lansky, Sonia and Larson, Samantha Leigh and Larsson, Anders O and Lasrado, Savita and Lassi, Zohra S and Lazarus, Jeffrey V and Lee, Paul H and Lee, Shaun Wen Huey and Leever, Andrew T and LeGrand, Kate E and Leonardi, Matilde and Li, Shanshan and Lim, Lee-Ling and Lim, Stephen S and Linn, Shai and Lodha, Rakesh and Logroscino, Giancarlo and Lopez, Alan D and Lopukhov, Platon D and Lotufo, Paulo A and Lozano, Rafael and Lu, Alton and Lunevicius, Raimundas and Madadin, Mohammed and Maddison, Emilie R and Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan and Magdy Abd El Razek, Muhammed and Mahasha, Phetole Walter and Mahdavi, Mokhtar Mahdavi and Malekzadeh, Reza and Mamun, Abdullah A and Manafi, Navid and Mansour-Ghanaei, Fariborz and Mansouri, Borhan and Mansournia, Mohammad Ali and Mapoma, Chabila Christopher and Martini, Santi and Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio and Masaka, Anthony and Mastrogiacomo, Claudia I and Mathur, Manu Raj and May, Erin A and McAlinden, Colm and McGrath, John J and McKee, Martin and Mehndiratta, Man Mohan and Mehri, Fereshteh and Mehta, Kala M and Meitei, Wahengbam Bigyananda and Memiah, Peter T N and Mendoza, Walter and Menezes, Ritesh G and Mengesha, Endalkachew Worku and Mensah, George A and Meretoja, Atte and Meretoja, Tuomo J and Mestrovic, Tomislav and Michalek, Irmina Maria and Mihretie, Kebadnew Mulatu and Miller, Ted R and Mills, Edward J and Milne, George J and Mirrakhimov, Erkin M and Mirzaei, Hamed and Mirzaei, Maryam and Mirzaei-Alavijeh, Mehdi and Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen and Moazen, Babak and Moghadaszadeh, Masoud and Mohamadi, Efat and Mohammad, Dara K and Mohammad, Yousef and Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Naser and Mohammadbeigi, Abolfazl and Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah and Mohammadpourhodki, Reza and Mohammed, Hussen and Mohammed, Shafiu and Mohebi, Farnam and Mohseni Bandpei, Mohammad A and Mokari, Amin and Mokdad, Ali H and Momen, Natalie C and Monasta, Lorenzo and Mooney, Meghan D and Moradi, Ghobad and Moradi, Masoud and Moradi-Joo, Mohammad and Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar and Moradzadeh, Rahmatollah and Moraga, Paula and Moreno Velásquez, Ilais and Morgado-da-Costa, Joana and Morrison, Shane Douglas and Mosser, Jonathan F and Mouodi, Simin and Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam and Mousavi Khaneghah, Amin and Mueller, Ulrich Otto and Musa, Kamarul Imran and Muthupandian, Saravanan and Nabavizadeh, Behnam and Naderi, Mehdi and Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman and Naghavi, Mohsen and Naghshtabrizi, Behshad and Naik, Gurudatta and Najafi, Farid and Nangia, Vinay and Nansseu, Jobert Richie and Ndwandwe, Duduzile Edith and Negoi, Ionut and Negoi, Ruxandra Irina and Ngunjiri, Josephine W and Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi and Nguyen, Trang Huyen and Nigatu, Yeshambel T and Nikbakhsh, Rajan and Nikpoor, Amin Reza and Nixon, Molly R and Nnaji, Chukwudi A and Nomura, Shuhei and Noubiap, Jean Jacques and Nouraei Motlagh, Soraya and Nowak, Christoph and Oţoiu, Adrian and Odell, Christopher M and Oh, In-Hwan and Oladnabi, Morteza and Olagunju, Andrew T and Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola and Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun and Omar Bali, Ahmed and Ong, Kanyin L and Onwujekwe, Obinna E and Ortiz, Alberto and Otstavnov, Nikita and Otstavnov, Stanislav S and Øverland, Simon and Owolabi, Mayowa O and P A, Mahesh and Padubidri, Jagadish Rao and Pakshir, Keyvan and Palladino, Raffaele and Pana, Adrian and Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra and Park, James and Pasupula, Deepak Kumar and Patel, Jenil R and Patel, Sangram Kishor and Patton, George C and Paulson, Katherine R and Pazoki Toroudi, Hamidreza and Pease, Spencer A and Peden, Amy E and Pepito, Veincent Christian Filipino and Peprah, Emmanuel K and Pereira, Alexandre and Pereira, David M and Perico, Norberto and Pigott, David M and Pilgrim, Thomas and Pilz, Tessa M and Piradov, Michael A and Pirsaheb, Meghdad and Pokhrel, Khem Narayan and Postma, Maarten J and Pourjafar, Hadi and Pourmalek, Farshad and Pourshams, Akram and Poznańska, Anna and Prada, Sergio I and Prakash, Sanjay and Preotescu, Liliana and Quazi Syed, Zahiruddin and Rabiee, Mohammad and Rabiee, Navid and Radfar, Amir and Rafiei, Alireza and Raggi, Alberto and Rahman, Muhammad Aziz and Rajabpour-Sanati, Ali and Ram, Pradhum and Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal and Rao, Sowmya J and Rasella, Davide and Rashedi, Vahid and Rastogi, Prateek and Rathi, Priya and Rawal, Lal and Remuzzi, Giuseppe and Renjith, Vishnu and Renzaho, Andre M N and Resnikoff, Serge and Rezaei, Nima and Rezai, Mohammad sadegh and Rezapour, Aziz and Rickard, Jennifer and Roever, Leonardo and Ronfani, Luca and Roshandel, Gholamreza and Rostamian, Morteza and Rubagotti, Enrico and Rwegerera, Godfrey M and Sabour, Siamak and Saddik, Basema and Sadeghi, Ehsan and Sadeghi, Masoumeh and Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar and Safari, Yahya and Safi, Sare and Safiri, Saeid and Sagar, Rajesh and Sahebkar, Amirhossein and Sahraian, Mohammad Ali and Sajadi, S Mohammad and Salahshoor, Mohammad Reza and Salama, Joseph S and Salamati, Payman and Salem, Marwa R Rashad and Salimi, Yahya and Salomon, Joshua A and Salz, Inbal and Samad, Zainab and Samy, Abdallah M and Sanabria, Juan and Santric-Milicevic, Milena M and Saraswathy, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer and Sartorius, Benn and Sarveazad, Arash and Sathian, Brijesh and Sathish, Thirunavukkarasu and Sattin, Davide and Saylan, Mete and Schaeffer, Lauren E and Schiavolin, Silvia and Schwebel, David C and Schwendicke, Falk and Sekerija, Mario and Senbeta, Anbissa Muleta and Senthilkumaran, Subramanian and Sepanlou, Sadaf G and Serván-Mori, Edson and Shabani, Mahsima and Shahabi, Saeed and Shahbaz, Mohammad and Shaheen, Amira A and Shaikh, Masood Ali and Shalash, Ali S and Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran and Shamsi, MohammadBagher and Shamsizadeh, Morteza and Shannawaz, Mohammed and Sharafi, Kiomars and Sharafi, Zeinab and Sharara, Fablina and Sharma, Rajesh and Shaw, David H and Sheikh, Aziz and Shin, Jae Il and Shiri, Rahman and Shrime, Mark G and Shuval, Kerem and Siabani, Soraya and Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora and Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig and Silva, Diego Augusto Santos and Simonetti, Biagio and Simpson, Kyle E and Singh, Jasvinder A and Skiadaresi, Eirini and Skryabin, Valentin Yurievich and Soheili, Amin and Sokhan, Anton and Sorensen, Reed J D and Soriano, Joan B and Sorrie, Muluken Bekele and Soyiri, Ireneous N and Spurlock, Emma Elizabeth and Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T and Stockfelt, Leo and Stokes, Mark A and Stubbs, Jacob L and Sudaryanto, Agus and Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale and Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Rizwan and Sykes, Bryan L and Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael and Tabb, Karen M and Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar and Taherkhani, Amir and Tang, Muming and Taveira, Nuno and Taylor, Heather Jean and Teagle, Whitney L and Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash and Teklehaimanot, Berhane Fseha and Tessema, Zemenu Tadesse and Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman and Thomas, Nihal and Thrift, Amanda G and Titova, Mariya Vladimirovna and Tohidinik, Hamid Reza and Tonelli, Marcello and Topor-Madry, Roman and Topouzis, Fotis and Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto Roberto and Traini, Eugenio and Tran, Bach Xuan and Travillian, Ravensara and Trias-Llimós, Sergi and Truelsen, Thomas Clement and Tudor Car, Lorainne and Unnikrishnan, Bhaskaran and Upadhyay, Era and Vacante, Marco and Vakilian, Alireza and Valdez, Pascual R and Valli, Alessandro and Vardavas, Constantine and Vasankari, Tommi Juhani and Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales and Vasseghian, Yasser and Veisani, Yousef and Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy and Vidale, Simone and Violante, Francesco S and Vlassov, Vasily and Vollset, Stein Emil and Vos, Theo and Vujcic, Isidora S and Vukovic, Ana and Vukovic, Rade and Waheed, Yasir and Wallin, Mitchell Taylor and Walters, Magdalene K and Wang, Hongbo and Wang, Yuan-Pang and Watson, Stefanie and Wei, Jingkai and Weiss, Jordan and Weldesamuel, Girmay Teklay and Werdecker, Andrea and Westerman, Ronny and Whiteford, Harvey A and Wiangkham, Taweewat and Wiens, Kirsten E and Wijeratne, Tissa and Wiysonge, Charles Shey and Wojtyniak, Bogdan and Wolfe, Charles D A and Wondmieneh, Adam Belay and Wool, Eve E and Wu, Ai-Min and Wu, Junjie and Xu, Gelin and Yamada, Tomohide and Yamagishi, Kazumasa and Yano, Yuichiro and Yaya, Sanni and Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Vahid and Yearwood, Jamal A and Yeheyis, Tomas Y and Yilgwan, Christopher Sabo and Yip, Paul and Yonemoto, Naohiro and Yoon, Seok-Jun and Yoosefi Lebni, Javad and York, Hunter W and Younis, Mustafa Z and Younker, Theodore Patrick and Yousefi, Zabihollah and Yousefinezhadi, Taraneh and Yousuf, Abdilahi Yousuf and Yusefzadeh, Hasan and Zahirian Moghadam, Telma and Zakzuk, Josefina and Zaman, Sojib Bin and Zamani, Mohammad and Zamanian, Maryam and Zandian, Hamed and Zhang, Zhi-Jiang and Zheng, Peng and Zhou, Maigeng and Ziapour, Arash and Murray, Christopher J L (2020) Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet, 396 (10258). pp. 1160-1203. ISSN 01406736

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Abstract

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: WA Public Health > WA. 900 Vital Statistics
Divisions: Faculty of Health > Department of Epidemiology
Depositing User: zeynab . bagheri
Date Deposited: 21 Dec 2020 04:50
Last Modified: 21 Dec 2020 04:50
URI: http://eprints.skums.ac.ir/id/eprint/8773

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