Introducing novel and comprehensive models for predicting recurrence in breast cancer using the group LASSO approach: are estimates of early and late recurrence different?

Akrami, Majid and Arasteh, Peyman and Eghbali, Tannaz and Raeisi Shahraki, Hadi and Tahmasebi, Sedigheh and Zangouri, Vahid and Rezaianzadeh, Abbas and Talei, Abdolrasoul (2018) Introducing novel and comprehensive models for predicting recurrence in breast cancer using the group LASSO approach: are estimates of early and late recurrence different? World J Surg Oncol.

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: In here, we constructed personalized models for predicting breast cancer (BC) recurrence according to timing of recurrence (as early and late recurrence). METHODS: An efficient algorithm called group LASSO was used for simultaneous variable selection and risk factor prediction in a logistic regression model. RESULTS: For recurrence < 5 years, age (OR 0.96, 95% CI = 0.95-0.97), number of pregnancies (OR 0.94, 95% CI = 0.89-0.99), family history of other cancers (OR 0.73, 95% CI = 0.60-0.89), hormone therapy (OR 0.76, 95% CI = 0.61-0.96), dissected lymph nodes (OR 0.98, 95% CI = 0.97-0.99), right-sided BC (OR 0.87, 95% CI = 0.77-0.99), diabetes (OR 0.77, 95% CI = 0.60-0.98), history of breast operations (OR 0.38, 95% CI = 0.17-0.88), smoking (OR 5.72, 95% CI = 2.11-15.55), history of breast disease (OR 3.32, 95% CI = 1.92-5.76), in situ component (OR 1.58, 95% CI = 1.35-1.84), tumor necrosis (OR 1.87, 95% CI = 1.57-2.22), sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) (OR 2.90, 95% CI = 2.05-4.11) and SLNB+axillary node dissection (OR 3.50, 95% CI = 2.26-5.42), grade 3 (OR 1.79, 95% CI = 1.46-2.21), stage 2 (OR 2.71, 95% CI = 2.18-3.35), stages 3 and 4 (OR 5.01, 95% CI = 3.52-7.13), and mastectomy+radiotherapy (OR 2.97, 95% CI = 2.39-3.68) were predictors of recurrence < 5 years. Moreover, relative to mastectomy without radiotherapy (as reference for comparison), quadrantectomy without radiotherapy had a noticeably higher odds ratio compared to quadranectomy with radiotherapy for recurrence < 5 years. (OR 17.58, 95% CI = 6.70-46.10 vs. OR: 2.50, 95% CI = 2-3.12). Accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the model were 82%, 75.6%, and 74.9%, respectively. For recurrence > 5 years, stage 2 cancer (OR 1.67, 95% CI = 1.31-2.14) and radiotherapy+mastectomy (OR 2.45, 95% CI = 1.81-3.32) were significant predictors; furthermore, relative to mastectomy without radiotherapy (as reference for comparison), quadranectomy without radiotherapy had a noticeably higher odds ratio compared to quadranectomy with radiotherapy for recurrence > 5 years (OR 7.62, 95% CI = 1.52-38.15 vs. OR 1.75, 95% CI = 1.32-2.32). Accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the model were 71%, 78.8%, and 55.8%, respectively. CONCLUSION: For the first time, we constructed models for estimating recurrence based on timing of recurrence which are among the most applicable models with excellent accuracy (> 80%).

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Breast cancer, Early, Late, Model, Prediction, Recurrence
Subjects: QZ pathology-Neoplasms
Divisions: Faculty of Health > Department of Epidemiology
Depositing User: Unnamed user with email nazari@skums.ac.ir
Date Deposited: 18 Sep 2018 04:35
Last Modified: 17 Apr 2019 05:18
URI: http://eprints.skums.ac.ir/id/eprint/7201

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