Predict the future incidence and mortality of breast cancer in Iran from 2012-2035

Valipour, Ali Asghar. and Mohammadian, Mahdi. and Ghafari, Mahin. and Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah. (2017) Predict the future incidence and mortality of breast cancer in Iran from 2012-2035. Iranian Journal of Public Health, 46 (4). pp. 579-580.

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Abstract

Global Breast Cancer (BC) is the most common non-skin malignancy, nearly a third of newly diagnosed cancers in the United States and the second leading cause of mortality in women throughout the world was BC (1, 2). Between 1975 and 2000 the burden of BC has doubled, that is attributable to the increase in life expectancy and spread of unhealthy lifestyle (3). Nevertheless, these trends are not visible in early onset of BC, as the rates have been more or less stable in most countries in the past 20 yr (4). As for mortality rates, they have been progressively decreasing, particularly in younger women, due to the improved treatment and primary detection (5). In Iran with increasing life expectancy and the aging of the residents, the incidence and mortality of BC will increase in the future years (6). In GLOBOCAN project, the expected number of new cancer cases or deaths in a country or region in 2015–2035 is computed by multiplying the age-specific incidence/mortality rates estimated for 2012, by the corresponding expected population for 2015–2035. In Iran, based on the GLOBOCAN project in 2012, the number of BC in woman was 9795 case and the number of new case have an increase in the next few years, so in 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2035 the number of new cases were 10982, 12684, 14920, 17346 and 19328, respectively. Therefore, in 2035 compare 2012 the numbers of new case were nearly 2 times. In addition, in 2012, the numbers of death from BC was 3304 and in the next few years, we have increase in the number of death from BC, so in 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2035 the numbers of deaths were 3742, 4394, 5248, 6220 and 7138. We expect that Iranian population structure, the greatest increase in the number of new cases and deaths from BC observe in age group (ages >= 65), so in 2035 compared to 2012, the number of new case and mortality will be 3 times, while in the age group below 65 yr, the increase is about 1.8 times

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: cited By 0
Subjects: WP Gynecology
QZ pathology-Neoplasms
Divisions: Faculty of Health > Department of Public Health
Depositing User: zahra bagheri .
Date Deposited: 20 Jun 2017 06:26
Last Modified: 08 May 2018 04:45
URI: http://eprints.skums.ac.ir/id/eprint/150

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